布萊克本流浪者與大馬經濟 Blackburn Rovers and Malaysian Economy

在英超歷史中,布萊克本流浪者是九十年代競逐冠軍盃的熱門球隊。該球會曾經是前英格蘭國腳的老巢,包括前鋒謝勒、中場薛爾伍德、後衛拿索斯,以及門將科華斯。布萊克本曾經在1994/95賽季贏得英超冠軍,祇是後來一直無法重演這段歷史。謝勒隨後也轉會至紐卡索,拿索斯則加盟切爾西。

更加不堪的是,球隊降級至英格蘭冠軍聯賽,之後回升英超,近年再從英冠降至英甲。這個曾經輝煌的球隊已經與諾丁漢森林隊、保頓流浪隊齊名,因為大家都曾經贏得重要賽事的冠軍盃,但是近年來一直無力重返英超。

對於布萊克本流浪者,我祇記得這麼多,若有錯誤還請各位讀者糾正。其實當惠譽評估將馬來西亞的主權評級從A-下調至BBB+ 與展望穩定,我就想起布萊克本的起起落落。而哪些經濟體跟我們相若呢?維基百科資料顯示,印度(BBB-)、巴拿馬(BBB)、羅馬尼亞(BBB-)和其他。以前我們跟愛爾蘭的A+評級祇差一級,現在又更遙遠了一些。

我不是經濟學家。我的理解是,評級愈低、借貸成本愈高,因為國家債券必須調高利率。相反地,評級愈高、借貸成本愈低,因為投資者認為你的國家債券比較穩定,哪怕利率低一些也願意投資。若評級愈低代表借貸成本愈低,拜託也請各位提醒我,因為這代表我必須將我的理解完全倒反過來。

20世紀的經濟體大概靠天然資源就可以賺錢過活、達致金融可行性。但是21 世紀又是另一套競爭體系,經濟增長必須靠技術與知識為本的人力資源。

以前我們或許聽說過阿根廷賣著一百年前出口的產品。意思是說,賣同幾個產品賣個上百年,大概經濟也會遇到重挫。祇是世界變遷太快,我根本懷疑若吃老本吃個三五十年,大概也為未來經濟增長埋下另一場災難。

當臺灣的臺積電目標朝向4奈米、3奈米、2奈米、1奈米晶片邁進,南韓也極力奮起直追,當新加坡的潔淨水技術輸出全球之際,我們在馬來西亞依然擔心水供中斷,還有妙想天開以為2021年經濟一片向好的粗疏經濟管理模式。以前落後大馬的對手如台韓新早就超前,越南與印度則是進步迅速。彷彿大馬已經降級至英冠或英甲了,打個比喻來說。

我們的吉隆坡國際機場曾經領先全球。但是我們也像布萊克本流浪者,滑落至低階聯賽之後一直苦苦等著當個升班馬重歸頂級聯賽。

布萊克本、大馬經濟、吉隆坡國際機場,拜託加緊努力重拾昔日光輝吧。

Blackburn Rovers were among the English Premier League title contenders in the 1990s. The club was home to former England players, namely striker Alan Shearer, midfielder Tim Sherwood, defender Graeme Le Saux and goalkeeper Tim Flower. They won the league title in 1994/95 season—a success proved too difficult to repeat for the club. Shearer then left for Newcastle United and Le Saux, Chelsea.

Things started to fall apart even further for the club when they were relegated to Championship before being promoted to the top league again, only to be relegated to even lower-tier League 1 in recent years. The once-high-flying club joined the rank of Nottingham Forest and Bolton Wanderers—all previous cup winners but now find themselves needing more time to fight the way up back to premier league.

This is what I remember about Blackburn Rovers. Do correct me if I am wrong. The ups and downs of Blackburn were what I was reminded of when I saw Fitch Ratings downgraded Malaysia’s sovereign rating from A- to BBB+ with a stable outlook. Which economies are about the same as us? India (BBB-), Panama (BBB), Romania (BBB-) and more, as shown on Wikipedia. Previously one grade below Ireland’s A+ rating, we are now another grade further away.

I am no economist. My understanding is that when you have a lower rating, your cost of borrowing increases as you need to offer higher interest rate for your sovereign bond. Contrarily, if your rating is higher, your borrowing cost is lower because you can offer lower interest rate and investors would still invest in your bond because they think yours is more stable. Do correct me if lower rating means cheaper borrowing cost, so that I try to turn my understanding upside down.

Economies in the 20th century might need to depend on natural resources to make a living and achieve financial feasibility. But the game has changed in the 21st century, which requires a technology- and knowledge-based human resources to achieve economic growth. In the past we might have heard that the Argentines were selling goods that their forefathers sold 100 years ago. The underlying message is this: if you do the same old things for 100 years, you are likely to be doomed. Things change so rapidly in that I suspect that if you repeat the old model for 30 or 50 years, it is likely to create disaster for your future economic growth.

When Taiwan’s TSMC is aiming to produce 4, 3, 2, and even 1 nanometer chips, when Singapore is exporting clean water technology to the world, we in Malaysia are still worrying about water supply disruption, as well as a careless economic management style betting on good days to return as soon as 2021. Formerly trailing rivals Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore are leaping ahead, while Vietnam and India are catching up fast. As if Malaysia were being relegated to Championship or League 1, metaphorically speaking.

Our KLIA was once among a world-leading airport—but like Blackburn Rovers, it is now ranked in lower-tier league waiting to be promoted back to the top league.

Oh Blackburn, Malaysia’s economy, KLIA, please work harder to regain past glory.

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