隨著英美和以色列逐步解封，英格蘭的足球聯賽和美國職業籃球聯賽也可以開放觀眾入場了，我心裏其實愈來愈相信各個經濟體解封是指日可待的事。
這股信心其實來自兩個原因：
第一，英美疫苗施打率相當可觀，中國施打疫苗人數也有增加，星馬地區的疫苗接種人數也是開始增加。目前西方國家正在研究交叉施打疫苗的效果，globalnews.ca報導是效果不錯而且後遺症不算嚴重。若第一劑是阿斯利康、第二劑是輝瑞，或者施打兩劑疫苗的民眾可以在接種第三針的時候補上另一個品牌的疫苗來加強保護力，擁有新冠肺炎的更強抗體的人數持續增加，整個經濟運作的環境就愈安全。
第二，美國輝瑞公司正在研究口服藥，最快可能2021年底面世。
若很多人施打了疫苗，而且口服藥也面世了，誰若受到新冠肺炎感染了就可以馬上服藥，再加上打過疫苗的民眾大致上沒有重症和死亡風險，這整個情況大致上就可以壓抑成一般的傷風感冒。
若英美在今年夏天放鬆管制而且沒有看到感染人數大幅上升，或者感染了也祇有輕微症狀，這個就可以成為全球指標。大規模疫苗接種之後，零星感染必定還會出現，但是整體經濟已經可以恢復疫情前的程度了。
若有哪幾個／數十個經濟體可以在2021年夏天至2022年夏天恢復大致上的運作，我並不會感到意外。其實我是樂觀其成，人類必然又再一次靠科學的力量站起來。
控制人類命運的不是怪力亂神，而是我們自己。
As I saw UK and US and Israel started to relax restrictions, as football leagues in England and NBA in US have welcomed back fans in stadium, I am increasingly optimistic that the reopening of economies can be expected soon.
My confidence comes from two points.
Firstly, vaccination rate in UK and US is quite encouraging, so does China. Vaccination rate in Singapore and Malaysia is also increasing. Western countries are now researching into the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccine mixing. Globalnews.ca report shows it is not bad and the side effects are not severe. If having AstraZeneca as first dose and Pfizer for the second, or fully vaccinated individuals to be given a third dose to enhance the protection, we will have more people protected against this novel coronavirus. That would mean safer environment for economic activities.
Secondly, American company Pfizer is conducting a research on oral medicine, and it could be introduced as early as late 2021.
When many individuals have been vaccinated and the oral medicine is introduced, patients infected by coronavirus could take medicine immediately. This is not forgetting that vaccinated individuals have no risks for severe symptoms and death, the overall pandemic could be suppressed to the level of a normal cold.
When UK and US relax restrictions this summer and we see no significant increase of infection cases, or infected patients show only mild symptoms, this could be a global benchmark. Scattered infections would still take place even after mass vaccination. But the economies could recover to pre-pandemic situation.
From summer 2021 to summer 2022, I would not be surprised if we see several economies–if not tens of economies–restore most economic activities.
I am optimistic that humankind will stand up again with the power of science.
It is ourselves–not any inexplicable forces–that control the destiny of human race.